Measuring airport transit (and why Atlanta is the best and Boston is the worst)

Boston has the worst airport transit in the country (and maybe the world) … at least by a metric I devised below.

Logan airport lies less than two miles from Downtown but under even the best of circumstances a transit trip there can take 25 to 30 minutes (at rush hour, driving can be just as bad). If it wasn’t for the harbor, it would be a pleasant walk; San Diego, the only similarly-close airport in the country, is a nice walk from downtown. But it’s not, and it should be better.

Airport transit can be, and has been, measured in many ways, including:

  • Your boyfriend Nate Silver (This is a reference to Wonkette in … 2008? God I’m old.) looking at transit travel time versus driving and whether it makes sense to take transit just from a time standpoint and Honolulu somehow has faster transit than driving (not until HART opens, if it ever does).
  • The Points Guy who somehow has Boston on the Nice List (it’s close, I guess)
  • CityNerd who uses a similar metric to the one I will, but also doesn’t differentiate based on the distance from the airport, so airports near cities aren’t penalized when they have lousy transit connections (and he also doesn’t do buses, which I get, but they should be included).

My approach is a bit different: I wanted to look at each airport, the typical travel time to “downtown” with half a headway added to penalize infrequency and calculate the “speed” which this is based on a straight-line distance this covers. Most cities only have one airport. Cities with close-in airport transit connections should not get special treatment over those with airports far away with good transit connections, especially since the noise and pollution of having an airport adjacent to dense housing is not great. (This is where I disagree with Ray’s—uh, CityNerd’s—methodology, which was distance-agnostic, although that was one of his earlier videos and he has since moved to often using more complex analyses.) In a sense, my methodology sort of a second derivative of travel time.

So what does it give us? For the 30ish largest airports (I added a couple extras for … fun, or in the case of Pittsburgh, because my wife was taking the 28X when I was drafting this) the speeds range from 25 mph in Denver to an almost literally pedestrian 3.9 mph in Boston (although the pedestrian route would be longer since there’s a bit of ocean in the way, but a fast triathlete could make it faster than taking transit). The speed to get from Boston to its airport is 50% slower than any other airport in the country.

AirportTravel timeHeadway/2DistanceTotal time“Speed”
BOS2261.8283.9
TPA36155515.9
SAN1782.5256.0
FLL20133.5336.4
LAS36155.5516.5
HNL27134.4406.6
BNA32226.8547.6
PDX4186.4497.8
LGA3956448.2
CLT26155.7418.3
PHX1983.8278.4
MIA2585339.1
SLC2585339.1
LAX571511729.2
AUS3686.8449.3
BWI35158509.6
JFK707137710.1
ORL35158.55010.2
EWR5010116011.0
MKE2776.43411.3
DCA1443.41811.3
PHL221573711.4
PIT4115145615.0
MSP2287.53015.0
DTW3038186815.9
DFW5010166016.0
CLE2789.63516.5
MDW2568.63116.6
IAH48815.85616.9
STL311011.84117.3
SEA34511.33917.4
ORD46415.65018.7
SFO304123421.2
IAD566236222.3
ATL1748.42124.0
DEN37818.54524.7

This metric has a flaw, however: there is a significant correlation between distance from city center and speed. It’s not surprising that the two closest cities to their airports, Boston and San Diego, are two of the three worst performers. A longer distance allows more time at speed and less time in congested areas. Similarly, some of the “fastest” connections are some of the furthest. Denver clocks in at 25 mph and while the A Line is a convenient trip, the airport seems halfway to Kansas, and getting there takes a good deal longer than Boston or San Diego.

So I plotted out these data, and took a regression, and figured out what the “speed” “should be” for each airport based on its distance from the city center. (Yes, that’s a lot of quotation marks in on sentence; this is a made-up metric.) Far-out airports should be faster, the trip doesn’t take place entirely near downtown, so trains can move faster over longer distances between stops and buses can benefit from less-congested highways. This gives us an idea of how fast we would expect a trip to be based on the distance traveled, so airports close in aren’t unduly penalized compared with those far away. The R-squared here is about 0.6, and the line slope is 0.85 mph per mile, plus a constant of 5 (which is basically half of a “decent” headway). So an airport 10 miles from a Downtown should have a travel speed of about 13.5 mph, meaning a 45 minute travel time, which seems about right.

Points above the line are better-than-expected service, those below are worse. The point at 4 miles and 11 mph is DCA, the point at 13 miles and 10 mph is JFK. While the speed is about the same, DCA is much easier to get to by transit because we’d expect an airport as distant as JFK to have better transit.

Put this all together, and we can now compute, for each city, how fast we expect a trip to be compared to the actual speed, and then compare this. This adds a couple more columns to the chart but changes the order significantly. Also note that for this run at the data, I’ve added in the four big airports in Canada (Montreal, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver) and for airports with under-construction links—namely, Montreal and Honolulu—added them in as well (with an *). (LAX also has something under construction, but I’m not sure it will make it any faster to get there, at least from downtown.) This changes the slope of the line slightly and the calculations are based on that slope. I’ve also bolded the airport name if it has an all-rail connection and italicized it the connection is a one-seat ride (nonstop for buses), and, yes, bold-italic shows a one-seat rail trip.

AirportTravel timeHeadway
/2
DistanceTotal time“Speed”Expected “speed”Speed/Expected
BOS2261.8283.97.154%
TPA36155515.99.760%
JFK707137710.116.262%
LAX571511729.214.663%
LAS36155.5516.510.164%
YYC45106.5557.111.065%
BNA32226.8547.611.267%
PDX4186.4497.810.972%
FLL20133.5336.48.575%
EWR5010116011.014.675%
LGA3956448.210.678%
SAN1782.5256.07.778%
DTW3038186815.920.378%
BWI35158509.612.279%
CLT26155.7418.310.381%
ORL35158.55010.212.681%
AUS3686.8449.311.283%
DFW5010166016.018.786%
PIT4115145615.017.088%
IAD566236222.324.491%
IAH48815.85616.918.591%
MIA2585339.19.793%
SLC2585339.19.793%
PHX1983.8278.48.896%
PHL221573711.411.4100%
ORD46415.65018.718.3102%
MKE2776.43411.310.9104%
STL311011.84117.315.3113%
SEA34511.33917.414.9117%
DEN37818.54524.720.7119%
YVR2646.73013.411.1120%
CLE2789.63516.513.5122%
MSP2287.53015.011.8127%
MDW2568.63116.612.7131%
DCA1443.41811.38.4134%
SFO304123421.215.4137%
YYZ25812.33322.415.7143%
YUL*2239.42522.613.3169%
HNL*1234.41517.69.3190%
ATL1748.42124.012.5192%

So Boston is still worst on the list. We’d expect a trip for the two miles between Logan Airport and Downtown Boston to go about 7.5 mph, and for the trip to take about 14 minutes. Instead, it takes twice that. But San Diego is no longer as close to the top of the list, beating out Portland, which has a direct rail connection but, because it takes so long to cover a relatively short distance, is worse, and also EWR and JFK, which have all-rail journeys (albeit with forced transfers).

The best transit, by this metric, is Atlanta, which is just 8.4 miles from downtown but averages 24 mph, nearly double what we’d expect, making the trip in 17 minutes with frequent service. Toronto’s current rail line (the UP Express) and Montreal’s upcoming REM are also high, although Montreal’s will be part of an integrated transit system and not an airport-only route. Honolulu will vault near the top of the list, just shy of Atlanta, when (if?) it opens, and SFO and DCA are both near the top. (For the pedantic, I am counting SFO as a direct trip even if for many airlines you have to take a connecting shuttle system.) Note that DCA is ranked similarly to SFO even though it’s speed is half as fast: we wouldn’t expect such high speeds for such a close airport.

Other than Atlanta, the two fastest domestic airports are DEN and IAD, each in the 22 to 24 mph range. At DIA’s distance, it still outpaces its expected speed. Dulles is, by five miles, the furthest airport from its downtown (if you assign BWI to Baltimore, and FLL to Fort Lauderdale, as I have), and we’d expect its transit link to be faster, but the distance and number of stops mean that even the well-running Silver Line is relatively slow. BWI and PDX are the two worst direct rail links, with slow (and especially in the case of BWI, infrequent) trains even if they are convenient to the terminal.

Only one bus connection exceeds the expected travel time, in Milwaukee (which is one of the additions to this list; the airport doesn’t crack the top 30), the airport has a bus from downtown which runs every 13 to 15 minutes basically 24/7 (with some slightly longer headways—and a one hour gap—in the middle of the night). Notably, it’s not even an airport-specific bus, but just a city bus which serves the airport. Pittsburgh’s 28X doesn’t quite have the span or frequency of Milwaukee, but provides a good service given the airport’s distance from Downtown. IAH is similar, but for an airport its size, the transit service is lacking.

Is Atlanta the best airport transit link in the world? No, but it seems to be close. Zurich and Frankfurt both offer fast, frequent service to nearby airfields, each about five miles away (similar to National, although imagine DCA having a stop on the adjacent rail line with through service from the NEC, MARC and VRE). Arlanda outside Stockholm is an outlier. It’s as far from the city as Dulles, but the in-vehicle travel time is just 22 minutes, compared to 56 for Dulles, operating over a 200 km/h railroad (Oslo’s airport is the same distance and a minute faster, but somewhat less frequent). The mode share for Schipol is 50% transit (and 0% hyperloop)!

Somewhat notably, Asian airports seem to have middling airport rail connections, around the 100% mark (using the US/Canada baseline), while Europe leads the pack. (The chart below shows major airports >180% better than expected travel time; the next best I found—SYD—is just 152%, but I likely missed some.)

AirportTravel timeHeadway
/2
DistanceTotal time“Speed”Expected “speed”Speed/Expected
ZRH11351421.49.7220%
ARN22522.72750.424.1209%
FRA1155.61621.010.2205%
AMS1657.62121.711.9183%
OSL211022.73143.924.1182%

There may be others, but Atlanta, and maybe at some point in the future, Honolulu, certainly seems to hold up against the best airports to get to by transit in the world.

(Here’s the data I put together, if you’re interested.)

And Boston? A fix won’t be cheap. The Silver Line is slow and dumb and prone to tunnel traffic. The Blue Line is a mile from the airport and the buses are … slow and prone to terminal traffic, and a direct link from Downtown quite a bit more expensive. And because the connection is so short, a world-class connection in the 180% range would require a 9 minute trip, including wait time (hello, Zurich). A 100% trip, 15 minutes including the wait, may be more reasonable. An airport people mover would be expensive but could make it in 17 minutes: 4 minute wait, 6 minutes on the Blue Line, 2 minute wait, 5 minutes on a people mover. But for now it remains stuck on the bottom of the list.